LAHORE: In the wake of COAS General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani calling on President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, a fence mending exercise to negate perceptions that the civilian government and the army are on a collision course is in the offing. These meetings were a follow-up of less publicised meetings of the DG, ISI, General Shuja Pasha with the president, prime minister and minister for Information the other day.
As a result, the prime minister summoned a group of journalists on Thursday to claim that the government and the army were working in harmony while at the same time the president seemed to back off from invoking the Sindh card and declared that the PPP was a party representing the federation rather than just one province.
But will this be enough to remove the commonly held perception that the Army and the civilian government are not on the same page especially in the wake of the apex court declaring the NRO ultra vires of the constitution? According to analysts Mr Zardari and the prime minister will have to do more to remove the trust deficit created in the last two years. Major irritants relate to perceptions created as a result of some of President Zardariís statements as well as actions, and, in some cases, inaction by the government.
The presidentís statement in the beginning of his term that India was not our enemy did not go well with the top brass. Similarly, in the aftermath of 26/11 terrorist attack on Mumbai, public willingness shown by the presidency to send the ISI chief to India was not appreciated. This mistake was compounded by abortive efforts to place the ISI under the Ministry of Interior. Mr Hussain Haqqani, Pakistanís ambassador to Washington, Mr Zardarisís close confidant and personal choice, is not liked by the army which sees him as the man behind negative propaganda against the ISI in the US.
Poor governance and lack of transparency in the running of the government is another irritant. Earlier this year, the Army chief sent his DG, ISI with a list of corrupt, incompetent ministers and advisers to the president who reportedly promised to ease them out. But nothing happened. Perhaps, a case of too late and too little, most of the named have been reshuffled to relatively less important ministries only recently.
Sluggish economic performance in comparison with India has been a major concern for the Armed Forces for some years now. Strategic balance between the two historical adversaries has been tilting so much in favour of New Delhi that according to defence analysts now it is virtually impossible to maintain even a modicum of military parity in state-of-the-art modern weaponry.
Over the years, however, threat perception between India and Pakistan has not reduced. Presently India is embarked on a policy of letting Islamabad stew in its own juice by refusing to agree to any meaningful talks. Critics argue that the military and some of the India specific Jehadi outfits are an impediment to a thaw with New Delhi. However it is the Pakistan Army that has to deal with the Indian threat and devise strategic and tactical means to do so. Hence diplomacy to avoid confrontation with India is not something that it could be averse to.
New Delhi is not willing to oblige by agreeing to structured talks, whereas the civilian government in Islamabad is seen as too weak and reliant on the US for such a dialogue to take place on equal terms. In the meanwhile General Kayani is forced to withstand pressure from Washington to alter the militaryís historic strategic paradigm by shifting focus from Eastern to Pakistanís Western borders.
In this backdrop, the PPP, true to its past, is suffering from a siege mentality. It feels beleaguered by a court which it perceives as hostile rather than independent and an army that considers it a security risk. It has decided to adopt apolitically proactive approach but hopefully understands that it has not only to mend fences with the army but also to implement the Supreme Court verdict on the NRO in letter and spirit.
Prime Minister Gilani and the president have closed ranks in recent days. The perception in some circles, including the PML-N, that when push comes to shove, the prime minister will defy his party president, has come to naught. Mr Gilani has confided to his friends that he and his party would sit in the opposition rather than become a Shaukat Aziz or a Jamali heading a national government under the tutelage of the judiciary and the army.
Rumours are afoot that a more pliant PPP nominee, possibly Makhdoom Amin Faheem or Aftab Shaaban Mirani may replace President Zardari. Knowing the PPPís historically dynastic structure the legatee remains Mr Zardari and it will be virtually impossible to replace him with a quisling from within the Party.
President Zardari can be impeached or made to resign. But this does not seem to be on the cards either. However he faces a real threat from the apex court of being declared ineligible to hold the office of the president.
There is an evolving consensus on the removal of the seventeenth amendment and a constitutional amendment on provincial autonomy. President Zardari will continue to call the shots as the Party Chairperson, but his wings will certainly be clipped. Under the threat of disqualification the president just might not make good the promise of removing the controversial amendment.
PML-N supremo Mian Nawaz Sharif is playing a political savvy game by remaining soft but firm on what he wants, which Mr Zardari of course does not like. Sharif has said in so many words that his patience is running out but has put the ball in Zardariís court but not for an indefinite period. He also thinks the judiciary and the army may finish off Mr Zardari and he may emerge as the saviour of democracy and the system.
If the PPP and the military close ranks this strategy might not work for Mian Sahib, especially if the PPP balks on the promise to remove the seventeenth amendment. In order to survive President Zardari will have to remove irritants by improving governance and introduce transparency in running of the government. This could mean reining in his hawks and getting rid of some of his more controversial, corrupt and incompetent cohorts. His reliance on the US is already proving short-lived with some American diplomats in Islamabad predicting demise of his rule by as early as March next year.
The army including its intelligence sleuths will also have to outgrow the syndrome of being sole arbiter of the national interest. Thanks to Musharrafís misrule any unconstitutional change will not be welcomed nor will be desirable.
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