ISLAMABAD: The fate of Prime Minister Imran Khan's government will be decided today as the National Assembly resumes at 11:30am to vote on the no-confidence motion submitted against him by the joint opposition.

The opposition needs the support of at least 172 lawmakers from a total of 342 to oust the premier through the no-trust move.

As the situation stands now, opposition parties have managed to cross the magical figure of 172 and enjoy the support of 177 members in the NA, even without nearly over a dozen dissidents of the ruling PTI, who have already publicly declared the withdrawal of their support to the prime minister.

Prior to today's session of the National Assembly, the opposition also submitted a no-confidence motion against NA Speaker Asad Qaiser.

The resolution, addressed to the secretary of the National Assembly Secretariat, was submitted by Murtaza Javed Abbasi of the PML-N.

The joint opposition — primarily the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and PPP — had submitted the no-confidence motion for the premier's ouster with the NA Secretariat on March 8.

They had submitted two sets of documents — one under Article 54 of the Constitution to requisition the NA because it was not in session back then, and the other a resolution calling for a no-confidence vote against the prime minister.

The move by the opposition had come after almost a month of anticipation, with PDM chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman having formally announced their decision to file the motion on February 11.

Moreover, he had said at the time that the opposition would be approaching the ruling PTI's allies in the coalition government in the Centre to garner their support and ensure the success of the no-trust move.

In the days to follow, the country's political landscape had been abuzz with political activity as parties and individuals changed alliances and the PTI and opposition were seen trading barbs and allegations alongside intensifying efforts to ensure their success in the no-confidence contest.

One of the PTI's allies, the Balochistan National Party-Mengal, which had four seats in the NA, had parted ways with the ruling party in June 2020, way before the opposition even announced its intention to table a no-confidence motion against the premier. This had left the PTI with six allies in the Centre, most of whom were to be seen joining the opposition ranks in the coming days.

The PDM, joined by the PPP in its efforts to oust the prime minister, held meetings with the PTI's key allies, managing to bring them to their side.

Notable developments on this front included Jamhoori Watan Party leader and special assistant to the prime minister on reconciliation and harmony in Balochistan, Shah­zain Bugti, quitting the federal cabinet citing a lack of development in the province and the Balochistan Awami Party, which has five seats in the NA, accepting the opposition's invitation to join its rank.

But, perhaps, the biggest blow to the PTI was the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan's decision to throw its weight behind the opposition. The party, which has seven seats in the NA and had been a key ally of the ruling party, had announced its decision just a day before the opposition tabled the no-trust resolution in the NA, in a move that led to PM Imran losing his majority in the house.

Then there are defecting PTI MNAs in the equation.

Over a dozen PTI dissident MNAs have already come into the open with their criticism on the government policies, indicating that they might support the opposition’s no-trust motion even at the cost of being disqualified as NA members. However, some of the lawmakers have denied defection after they were issued show-cause notices by the party, which sought explanations from them as to why they may not be declared defectors.

Hence, the alliances of these dissident lawmakers remains unclear.

The PTI has accused them and the opposition of horse-trading, while a number of them maintain that their decisions are based on the "voices of their consciences".

For its part, the PTI has managed to secure the support of another one of its key allies, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), as Usman Buzdar stepped down as the Punjab chief minister in favour of the PML-Q's Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, whom the ruling party announced as its candidate the province's new chief executive.

These were the developments that preceded the tabling of the no-trust motion in the NA, with the opposition appearing confident about its win.

On the eve of the session in which the resolution was to be tabled, PM Imran claimed while addressing a public meeting in Islamabad that a "foreign conspiracy" was being hatched to topple his government.

At the PTI's rally on March 27, the premier had pulled out a piece of paper from his pocket and waved it at the crowd, claiming it was evidence of an "international conspiracy" being hatched to topple his government.

"Attempts are being made through foreign money to change the government in Pakistan. Our people are being used. Mostly inadvertently, but some people are using money against us. We know from what places attempts are being to pressure us. We have been threatened in writing but we will not compromise on national interest," he had said.

The NA met the next day on March 28 for the tabling of the no-confidence resolution against PM Imran.

According to Article 54, a session of the National Assembly can be requisitioned if at least 25 per cent of the members sign it, following which the speaker has a maximum of 14 days to summon a session.

Since the opposition had submitted the requisition for the session on March 8, the speaker should have called the lower house in session by March 22.

However, the speaker had called the session on March 25, three days after the March 22 deadline, citing the occupation of the NA chamber for the 48th session of the Organisation of Islamic Countries Council of Foreign Ministers on March 22 and 23.

But no-trust proceedings on March 25 were deferred after NA Speaker Asad Qaiser had adjourned the sitting within minutes, ignoring Opposition Leader Shehbaz Sharif who wanted to seek the floor to deliver a speech — a move that had earned Qaiser the opposition's criticism.

Qaiser had not allowed the opposition’s no-trust resolution to be tabled after offering fateha for the deceased PTI MNA from Hangu, Khayal Zaman, as per the parliamentary tradition.

It is a parliamentary convention that the first sitting after the death of an MNA is limited to prayers for the soul of the departed and tributes fellow lawmakers wish to pay them.

Qaiser had stated at the time that according to tradition, the agenda was deferred to the next day when a member of the lower house passed away.

Subsequently, Leader of the Opposition in the NA Shehbaz Sharif had tabled the no-confidence motion during the next session on March 28 session after 161 members voted in favour of him presenting the resolution.

According to Article 95 of the Constitution and rules of procedure of the house, a no-confidence resolution against the premier must have signatures of at least 20 per cent of the members of the National Assembly, which means at least 68 members, for it to be voted on.

The session was adjourned soon after for the NA to convene later on March 31 for debate on the resolution.

However, the subsequent session ended without any significant development as Deputy Speaker Qasim Suri, who presided over the session, did not accede to the opposition's demand to call for a vote on the no-confidence motion that very day.

Terming the opposition's attitude "non-serious", Suri had adjourned the session till today.

Meanwhile, the prime minister formally directed PTI lawmakers not to vote on the no-confidence motion. In a letter addressed to PTI lawmakers, he asked them not to attend the NA session for voting and warned that any violation of the instructions would be "treated as express defection in terms of Article 63-A" of the Constitution.

However, he changed his mind on Saturday and announced that he would be present during voting on the no-confidence resolution. He also directed PTI lawmakers to participate in Sunday’s proceedings and mount a vociferous defence of their prime minister.